Every business prediction (sales forecasting, budgeting, costing, asset/labor capacity analysis, inventory replenishment, supply chain analysis, etc.) starts with forecasting, either by a personal gut feeling or some simple mathematics!
When it comes to minimize forecasting errors and keeping risks at bay, relying on the right technique is what makes the difference between annual profits and losses. Large data sets and multiple variables can lead to overfitting and error in over estimations. With good forecasts you can manage the volatility risks. Imaging for example reordering in a retail environment 100’s of thousands of items the difference between 5% and 2% error rate, therefore producing excess inventory items that must eventually be discounted. The difference between running in the red or black in a fiscal year! Reduce the personal bias in the forecast and use up to date and time tested algorithms to support your decisions.
HAVE YOU EVER WONDERED:
- How good are my forecasts?
- How do you assess the forecast accuracy?
- How are seasonalities and trends managed?
- How do low rotation and discounted products come through your models?
- Are data errors automatically spotted and managed?
- How do you manage cannibalization and gripping circumstances?
- Can I set a sustainable risk range?
- Are weather and other influencing variables considered?
- How are stock-outs considered?
- How are special sales considered?
- Can vertical drilling (top-down / bottom-up) be performed?
- How do you perform forecasting on short-life products?
If YES, so what are you waiting for? It is time to cut your forecast error now!
ACTOR uses advanced techniques (autoregressive, moving average, exponential smoothing (e.g., (double, triple), Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters, ARMA, ARIMA, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), Neural Network, … ) and ACTOR’s products are developed on Java technology.